Euro Weakens as

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Euro Weakens as Weber Suggests EU Economy Needs Help

EuroThe euro slumped today after Axel Weber, the President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and Member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank, suggested that the European Central Bank would be required to aid European Union’s struggling economy by the end of this year.
Weber said that:
Most of these discussions about the continuation of the exit I think will be focused on the first quarter. It’s clear that we need to re-embark on a normalization procedure.
The economists predict that the reports next week would show the slower growth of the Japanese exports and the worsening of the German business sentiment. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 1.5 percent and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.6 percent.
As Weber said: “We are in year four of the crisis and markets are still fragile.” Yet he allowed some optimism in his words: “But let’s not exaggerate, we’re not facing major problems. The recovery is going to stay on track. All in all, the picture looks much brighter than it did a year ago.”
EUR/USD slumped from 1.2821 to 1.2684 today as of 16:02 GMT, while EUR/JPY tumbled from 109.48 to 108.66 after reaching the daily low of 108.25.

Canadian Dollar

Canadian Dollar Falls on Slower Inflation & Rates Outlook

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar tumbled today versus the US currency as the report about the slower pace of the Canadian inflation growth caused the investors to reduce bets on the increase of the interest rates by Canada’s central bank.
The core Consumer Price Index (excluding eight of the most volatile components) fell 0.1 percent in July, while the growth was predicted by the analysts. The Canadian currency was also weakened by the risk aversion sentiment among the investors, spurred by the signs of the slower economic growth in the US. The inflation report and the bad news from the US decreased the probability that the Bank of Canada will perform another rates hike.
As Camilla Sutton, the director of the currency strategy at the Bank of Nova Scotia, expressed it:
Today’s inflation release is negative for the Canadian dollar. The second key risk for the Canadian dollar is that the pace of both the US and global recovery is weaker than the already soft recovery priced in.
USD/CAD surged to 1.0498 from the opening level of 1.0401 today as of 17:43 GMT. EUR/CAD currency pair traded near its opening level of 1.3335.
If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.
Earlier News About the Canadian Dollar:

Australian Dollar

Australian Dollar Falls This Week on Poor News for Riskier Assets

Australian dollarThis week was volatile for the Australian dollar, but it generally declined against most other major currencies as the concern for the economic growth continues to haunt the markets.
The currencies linked to the growth had hard time to sustain their strength as signs of the slower economic growth were coming from all parts of the world. The main source of the worries is, of course, the US with its economic data, which causes the talks about the possible double-dip recession. But the traders’ concerns aren’t only about the US as Europe too reminded about its economic weakness. The forecast, that the report will show the worsening German business climate, significantly slashed the confidence in the European economy, as Germany was the main reason for the hopes in the brighter future for the EU fiscal conditions.
Even Asia, which previously demonstrated huge potential for the growth, showed signs of the economic slowdown. China was deliberately cooling its overheating economy, which isn’t very good for the Australian currency as China is the biggest trading partner of Australia. The analysts estimated that Japan’s exports expanded with slower pace. All in all, the news this week was very unfavorable for the riskier assets, including the Aussie.
AUD/USD currency pair rallied in the first half of this week, but was falling in the second, ending slightly below its opening level of 0.8931 at 0.8920 after rising to the weekly high of 0.9079. EUR/AUD fell from 1.4288 to 1.4241, following the advance to 1.4413. AUD/JPY opened at 77.00, dropped to 75.47 and closed at 76.40.
If you want to comment on the Australian and the New Zealand dollars’ recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Markets Tread Water Ahead of Jobs, USD Slides

Asia Pacific markets were firmer after a lackluster performance in US equities saw the Dow and the S&P close virtually flat on the session, while the Nasdaq posted a marginal gain of 0.3%. With no economic data on the calendar, markets have been driven by corporate earnings and M&A activity, with mining giant BPH Billiton's hostile bid for Potash Corp making global headlines. The Nikkei 225 was the strongest performer in the region, advancing by more than 1.3% on speculation that the BoJ may implement additional monetary easing measures in an effort to stem deflation and combat recent strength in the yen. The Hang Seng index and the Shanghai SE composite were higher by 0.8% and 1.0% respectively, while the S&P/ASX 200 index nudged higher by a meager 0.1%.

Also worth noting is China's decision today to allow the yuan to trade in the domestic market against the Malaysian ringgit for the first time. The move suggests China is taking steps towards a free floating currency, which would undoubtedly see the yuan appreciate considerably against most of the major currencies, save the yen. Having recently surpassed Japan as the world's second largest economy, a stronger yuan could have significant implications on global inflation as the cost of Chinese goods increases. The subsequent domestic slow down could also put pressure on the nation's closest trading partners, as weaker Chinese demand weighs on commodities and commodity backed economies.

Commodity prices were mixed, with crude oil gaining 1.0% to trade at $76.00 per barrel and gold holding just beneath the $1230 mark. Commodity backed currencies were firmer, with the aussie and the loonie advancing nearly .25% against the dollar to trade at .9000 and 1.0270 respectively. The greenback is weaker across the board, with the dollar index falling to 82.30. Bond yields have continued to slowly recover, with the 5-year at 1.477 and the 10-year at 2.67.

DATA SNAP:US July Nonfarm Payrolls -131K; Job

Sunday, August 8, 2010

================================================================= 
July Employment Report                    ! Consensus:          ! 
                            July    Jun   ! Payrolls:    -60K   ! 
     Payrolls               -131   -221Kr !                     ! 
     Unemployment Rate       9.5%    9.5% ! Actual:      -131K  ! 
     Hourly Earnings        $22.59 $22.55r!                     ! 
================================================================= 
   By Luca Di Leo and Jeff Bater 
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES 
 
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. economy shed more jobs than expected in July while the unemployment rate held steady at 9.5%, a further sign the economic recovery may be losing momentum.
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 131,000 last month as the rise in private-sector employment was not enough to make up for the government jobs lost, the U.S. Labor Department said Friday. Only 71,000 private-sector jobs were added last month while 143,000 temporary workers on the 2010 census were let go.
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires were expecting total nonfarm payrolls to drop by a smaller 60,000 in July.
The June data was revised down significantly. Payrolls fell 221,000 that month, more than the 125,000 drop previously reported, as only 31,000 jobs were added in the private sector.
Taking into account revisions to prior months this year, the U.S. economy added an average of less than 100,000 jobs a month in the first seven months, a level that's not strong enough to bring unemployment down.
The jobless rate, which is calculated using a separate household survey, held steady at 9.5% in July. Economists were expecting it to edge higher to 9.6%.
After the worst recession in decades, the recovery that began in July 2009 has recently been losing momentum, but it's hard to say if it's just a temporary slowdown or if the economy could start to contract again. The Federal Reserve may consider taking steps to support the economy when officials meet next Tuesday. Some worry that with unemployment still so high and consumer prices recently dropping, the U.S. economy runs the risk of falling into a Japan-like deflationary trap of very slow growth and falling prices.
Friday's report showed that manufacturing jobs continued to trend up, rising by 36,000 after a 13,000 increase in June. Motor vehicles and parts had fewer seasonal layoffs than normal in July, the Labor Department said. Construction, a sector of the economy that is still suffering, lost 11,000 jobs in July.
Total government employment fell by 202,000 last month, hurt by the laying off of the census workers and by 48,000 jobs lost in state and local governments, which have significant budget strains.
In a sign of the labor market's continued weakness, Friday's report showed that 45% of unemployed Americans, or 6.6 million people, were out of work for more than six months in July. The longer someone is without a job, the harder it is to find work. With time, people lose skills -- and employers are often loathe to hire someone who hasn't been working for long periods.
In a slightly positive sign, the average workweek edged higher to 34.2 hours in July from 34.1 the previous month. More hours means more pay, giving a lift to consumers' spending power.
Meantime, the report also showed that average hourly earnings of all employees increased by $0.04 to $22.59 in July.
The Labor Department's employment report can be accessed at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm

Goldman Cuts US Growth View, Sees More Easing

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) economists on Friday cut their forecasts for U.S. economic growth in 2011 and said they expect the Fed to respond to high unemployment with "another round of unconventional monetary easing," including more asset purchases.
Economists led by Jan Hatzius and Ed McKelvey said they still expect growth in real gross domestic product to average 1.5% at an annual rate in the second half of this year. But they now see a more gradual pick-up by the end of next year.
GDP is likely to average 1.9% in 2011, versus a previous forecast of 2.5%, largely due to Congressional resistance to extending fiscal stimulus. The economists expect the Fed next week to announce a "baby step" to renewed unconventional easing next week.

US Bank Business Loans Up $9.4 Billion In Lat

US Bank Business Loans Up $9.4 Billion In Latest Week
WASHINGTON -(Dow Jones)- U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans increased $9.4 billion to about $1.241 trillion in the week ended July 28, the latest week for which data are available, the Federal Reserve said Friday.
That followed a $2.3 billion decrease the previous week.
Jumbo certificates of deposit rose $10.2 billion to about $1.781 trillion in the latest weekly data, after rising $3.3 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans fell $1.1 billion to $595.3 billion after remaining flat the previous week.
More weekly Fed statistics on the banks' assets and liabilities will be available on the Internet at: www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/Current



EUR/USD: a slight roll-back is in Euro’s favour

EUR/USD today on Forex didn’t stay above 1.30 and went down because of the negative attitude on world capital markets.
The US companies’ account reports didn’t inspire traders, and the extremely poor indexes from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., whose net income in second quarter dropped by 82%, became the catalysts for the mass closing of the number of market positions.
There was no support from statistics’ side as well. According to the data published today, the number of new buildings’ construction in USA in June dropped to the year’s minimum to 549 thousands houses, which is a 5% of the whole amount. As the revised May data shows, the last spring number was 578 thousands.
However the number of building permits in June grew up by 2,1% to 596 thousands, while analysts expected it to be 0,2% only.
So, the real estate market reflects the authorities’ measures that worked in this sphere before – in particular the tax benefits for the buyers are over, but they have helped to promote sales. The share of the apartment houses on the US market is about a half of the whole buildings.
Economists say that the situation will not significantly change in the next couple months: it will depend on the buyers’ mood, which is correlated with the labour market. It is obvious that the situation around employment is not really good in States right now. The decrease in the number of constructions will lead to the decrease in building materials, interior objects and consumer goods sales.
In general, market has recovered after the April’s euphoria. It seems now that till the mid of the autumn investors will have to keep in mind all the negative factors in their trading strategies.
As for the short-term perspectives of EUR/USD, the technical correction will not do any harm to Euro, so it can get to the new level.

EUR/USD: Euro keeps rolling back

EUR/USD is going down today. Investors are concerned that stress-tests of the European banks, which should be published on 23rd of July, will appear to be negative. It is considered that this data will show the real picture of the current state of Eurozone financial sector.
The only information already released is about one of the German banks, which doesn’t have enough capital to meet the required rates. In the beginning of the week investors were sure that Hypo Real Estate is going to be the only one that will not meet the requirements, but the closer it gets to the publication date, the more market players are panicking.
Today the head of the FRS is going to perform a speech in the US Senate with the semi-annual report. Some pressure also comes from the data about the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the USA that should be published tomorrow. It can appear poor again.
Meanwhile, investors’ were provided with the economists’ positive forecast. Experts from RCM Asia Pacific Ltd., which is managing more than $12 million dollars, think that in the third quarter of the current year investors will start to risk again, and the fear of the recession will be gone. Experts make their conclusions based on the observing of MSCI World index, which grew up by 5,1% in last 3 weeks, after dropping over 11% in first 6 months of the year. Economists admit the fact that some threat comes from the side of China, but think that traders have enough sources to be optimistic.
It should be noted that current roll-back is positive for Euro. Currency will avoid the “overheating”, while going down from the local maximum values, and will be able to continue the mid-term trend, after investors will get their long-expected information about the stress-tests results.

GBP: Pound needs some rest

Pound’s rate on Forex today was between the devil and the blue sea. On one hand outer background allowed to continue trend’s increasing for fifth session in a row, and that was what had happened in the morning. But in the middle of the day inner factors interrupted the growth.
The Governor of Bank of England – Mr. Mervyn King – said on Wednesday that Britain has a long way to go before it gets to the level of 2008. Having a speech in front of parliament, Mr. King has mentioned that he was glad to get a signal about the stable improvement of economical prognosis, but according to his words it will take lots of time.
King is opposed to Mr. Sentance, who thinks that interest rate level should be raised now, until current inflation situation allows doing so. It should be noted that in June inflation in GB slowed down to 3,2% per annum against May’s meaning of 3,4% per annum. Inflation crossed the 3% threshold in February 2010.
Interest rate in Britain now is at the level of 0,5% per annum.
Today a forecast for British GDP by NIESR has been published: according to it, expectations for this index grew up to 1,3% from the previous meaning of 1,0%. At the same time prognosis of Bank of England for GDP stays in 3-4% range; according to IMF – at the level of 2,1%.
British Pound’s small decrease should be considered a positive factor: after 4 sessions of non-stop rapid growth GBP needs some roll-back to avoid overheating.

EUR: the decrease will make currency more attractive

In the middle of the week EUR/USD is traded without any special initiatives on the Forex market. There are no catalysts to move up, as well as there are no reasons to go down.
Investors have played back the statistics published yesterday right away. According to data announced by Conference Board on Tuesday, index of consumer trust in USA in July has dropped once again to 50,4 from the previous 54,3 value (was 52,9 before the revision).
It means that trust of consumers got to the 5-months minimum: in February index’s value was 46,4.
Today market expects data about the levels of orders for durables: according to the forecasts the number of orders dropped in June by 1%, in May by 0,6%. The orders nonregistering the transportation meanwhile should grow by 0,4% against May’s level of +1,6%.
Opinions about the further direction of EUR/USD trend on Forex are different at the moment. First half of the players think that as currency pair managed to stay at 1.30+ level for a couple sessions, the prognosis will be optimistic, especially considering that interest of the “Bulls” for Euro stays around 1,3156. Second half of investors think that EUR/USD is overheated already, and its roll-back by more than 10% from June’s minimums will be enough.
Leading world banks in last 2 weeks one by one have announced the decision to revise their forecasts for Euro rate towards growth. It should be noted that Euro doesn’t grow because of the fact that Eurozone’s state is fine – it is not true. EUR gets stronger because US economy slows down, that’s it. World economy is far from getting stable.

AUD: hope for upcoming interest growth was dissipated by data about inflation

For the first time in last 5 days AUD goes down on Forex market. Domestic news has become the catalyst to sell AUD/USD.
CPI in Australia at the end of second quarter has grown by +0,6% per quarter and by +3,1% per annum against the previous values of +0,9% and +2,9 accordingly. Economists’ prognosis was +1,0% per quarter and +3,4% per annum. At the same time weighted average inflation, which is a less volatile indicator, has shown growth by 0,5% per quarter (+2,7% per annum) after the prognosis of +3,0% growth.
Investors were upset with statistics. It is considered on the market that only inflation higher than 0,9% per quarter can make Reserve Bank of
Australia rise interest rate again. The next meeting will be conducted next Tuesday, 3rd of August.
So far there’s no hope for growth of the rate in Australia in the near future: there are almost no fundamental reasons for its increase. Moreover, RBA didn’t announce its resume about the influence of previous rate’s rising to the economy of the country.
In general the situation in Asian-Pacific region makes rates grow faster than anywhere in the world: India, Korea and Thailand have already announced about the increasing of the rate; Malaysia has updated the rate three times this year already.
After going down on the first part of the day on Wednesday, AUD/USD continued trading around 0,8946. Trading turnover is not big, as market players’ attention is drawn to New Zealand market, where the decision about the national interest rate should be made in the evening.

EUR: Euro grows against a background of the weak American economy

EUR/USD improved its positions on the second part of Thursday on Forex. Investors kept buying against the stable outer background and positive data for Germany and Eurozone.
As information published today shows, index of trust to the Eurozone economy grew up in July to the maximum of 2008 – 101,3 points against forecasts of 99,1 points.
Moreover, the level of unemployment in Germany dropped to 7,6% in July, the number of unemployed people has decreased for 13th time in a row.
All these facts have supported the positive mood of the players, however a certain constraint comes from the expectation of information that will be released tomorrow – about the level of US GDP in second quarter. It can make part of the traders fix profits of Thursday.
In the evening it became known that the number of applications for unemployment benefits in USA decreased by 17,000, while it was expected to be only 4,000. The number of people, who keep receiving those benefits grew up by 81,000 a week to 4,565 million (the forecast was 4,5 million). So, it is true that US economy recovery will not go fast until the decrease of the number of applications will be that immaterial.
It should be noted that the problems on the labor market keep limiting the consumers expenditure, which can slow down the economy growth in the second part of 2010. At the moment, there’s no feeling of any stability: people are still scared to lose their jobs. Today’s news about NASA dismissing 1,5 thousands of employees by mail is a very bright example.

GBP: Pound grows against a good outer background

British Pound kept growing on Forex market on Thursday, despite of analysts’ scepsis and ambiguous signals from the indicators, which were calling to stay out of the market.
As Bank of England has announced today, about 47,643 credits were approved by creditors in June against the May’s number of 49,461. Decreasing demand for the real estate shows both toughening of the loan requirements and decrease of the consumer trust level.
Moreover, according to “Nationwide” research published on Thursday, prices for the accommodation dropped in July for the first time in last 5 months. Economists say that real estate market in GB has reached its turning point. At the same time an average forecast analysts give says that till the end of the year prices for accommodation will be going down, as their previous recovery had a very weak base under it.
Mervyn King – the head of the Bank of England – had mentioned on Wednesday in his speech in Parliament that Britain had the long way to go before interest rates would get to the level of 2008. King said that he would be glad to see the signal about the possibility of stable economic forecast, but it would take lots of time. Interest rate in Britain is at 0,5% per annum at the moment.
In general, till the end of the week it is most likely that Pound will be traded smoothly, without any major changes, if the outer background would stay positive. Pound will continue its Wednesday’s roll-back if the situation will change.

The main world holidays

Date Country Name of the holiday
01.01 Japan New Year
01.01 Switzerland New Year
01.01 Great Britain New Year
01.01 USA New Year
02-03.01 Japan New year’s additional vacations
08.01 Japan Coming of Age Day
01-05.01 Russia New year’s holidays
07.01 Russia Christmas
15.01 USA Martin Luther King, Jr. Day
12.02 Japan National Foundation Day
19.02 USA Washington’s Birthday
23.02 Russia Defender of the Fatherland Day
08.03 Russia International Women’s Day
21.03 Japan Vernal equinox
06.04 Canada Good Friday
06.04 Euro Union Good Friday
06.04 Switzerland Good Friday
06.04 Great Britain Good Friday
09.04 Euro Union Easter Monday
09.04 Switzerland Easter Monday
09.04 Great Britain Easter Monday
30.04 Japan Greenery Day
01.05 Switzerland Bank holiday/ Labour Day
01.05 Great Britain Early May Bank Holiday
01.05 Russia Spring and Labour Day
03.05 Japan Constitution Memorial Day
04.05 Japan Bank holiday/ Greenery Day
05.05 Japan Children’s Day
09.05 Russia Victory Day
17.05 Switzerland Ascension
22.05 Canada Victoria Day
28.05 Great Britain Spring Bank Holiday
28.05 USA Memorial day
28.05 Switzerland Corpus Christi
12.06 Russia Russia Day
02.07 Canada Canada Day
04.07 USA Independence Day
16.07 Japan Marine Day
01.08 Switzerland Swiss National Day
06.08 Canada Civic Holiday
27.08 Switzerland Bank holiday
27.08 Great Britain Late Summer Bank Holiday
03.09 Canada Labour day
03.09 USA Labour day
17.09 Japan Respect-for-the-Aged Day
24.09 Japan Autumnal equinox
08.10 Canada Thanksgiving
08.10 USA Columbus Day
08.10 Japan Health and Sports Day
30.10 Switzerland Bank holiday
03.11 Japan Culture Day
04.11 Russia Unity Day
12.11 Canada Remembrance Day
12.11 USA Veterans Day
22.11 USA Thanksgiving
23.11 Japan Labour Thanksgiving Day
24.12 Japan The Emperor’s Birthday
25.12 Euro Union Christmas
25.12 Switzerland Christmas
25.12 Great Britain Christmas
25.12 USA Christmas
25.12 Canada Christmas
26.12 Switzerland St Stephen’s Day
26.12 Great Britain St Stephen’s Day
26.12 Canada St Stephen’s Day

Trading sessions time (GMT)

Region City Winter time Summer time
Open Close Open Close
ASIA Tokyo 00:00 a.m. 08:00 a.m. 01:00 a.m. 09:00 a.m.
Hong Kong 01:00 a.m. 09:00 a.m. 02:00 a.m. 10:00 a.m.
Singapore 01:00 a.m. 09:00 a.m. 01:00 a.m. 09:00 a.m.
EUROPE Frankfurt 06:00 a.m. 02:00 p.m. 06:00 a.m. 02:00 p.m.
Zurich 06:00 a.m. 02:00 p.m. 06:00 a.m. 02:00 p.m.
Paris 06:00 a.m. 02:00 p.m. 06:00 a.m. 02:00 p.m.
London 07:00 a.m. 03:00 p.m. 07:00 a.m. 03:00 p.m.
AMERICA New York 01:00 p.m. 09:00 p.m. 01:00 p.m. 09:00 p.m.
Chicago 02:00 p.m. 10:00 p.m. 02:00 p.m. 10:00 p.m.
PACIFIC Wellington 09:00 p.m. 05:00 a.m. 09:00 p.m. 05:00 a.m.
Sydney 10:00 p.m. 06:00 a.m. 10:00 p.m. 06:00 a.m.

Asian session

The biggest market share belongs to Tokyo, then there go Hong Kong and Singapore. Tokyo market opens first, and a lot of major traders use its inertia as a basis for market dynamics estimation and developing of their trading strategies.

European session

London is the biggest and the most important dealing centre in the world. It accounts for 30% of Forex volume (based on the research of the Bank of international settlements). Most of the dealing departments of the main banks are located in London. A greater part of the currency transactions are closed during the European session due to the high liquidity and productivity of the London market. The vast majority of traders and the big volume of operations make it one of the most volatile Forex markets in the world.

American session

New York is the second largest foreign currency market; it shares 19% of the total Forex volume (based on the research of the Bank of international settlements). The most part of transactions is executed between 8 a.m. and 12 p.m., when the high liquidity is ensured by European traders.

Cooccurrence of the European and American sessions

The most active Forex trading is going on while the cooccurrence of these 2 sessions. About 70% of all currencies range in European session and 80% in American session are traded from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m. GMT. Thus, if trader works during the day, s/he doesn’t need to spend the whole day behind the computer, the perfect time for trading is cooccurrence of these 2 sessions.

Cooccurrence of the Asian and European sessions

Trading activity during the cooccurrence of these 2 sessions is much lower than during any other time, because of the low activity on the Asian market in the morning. Moreover, the period of time is really short. Forex trading activity is really low in this period of time.

News

EUR/USD is traded around the start levels of today’s session on Forex on Monday, despite of the positive outer background.
Ex-chairman of the FRS, Mr. Alan Greenspan, said today, that USA can run the danger of recession with the false bottom: he thinks that the current recovery of the economy is only a pause before dropping down. According to Mr. Greenspan’s opinion, the recession will continue if the real estate prices will go down again.
At the moment situation for Euro/Dollar is the following: Bulls’ targets are 1.3150 and 1.32 levels, but keeping in mind how hard it was to get over 1.30, we can suppose that it is far from taking a stable position on the above mentioned levels. The most likely scenario is the one, where pair will grow for 2-3 sessions, and then a technical correction will make itself felt.
In general Euro has a stronger position right now – not because things go better in Eurozone, but due to the fact that US economy slows down, which can be seen through the statistics published recently.
Investors are expecting data about ISM Manufacturing in States by 6 p.m. today. It is supposed that business activity in the industrial sector at the end of July has slowed down. If economists’ expectations will be proved right, Euro can get a new impulse to grow.
Current week will be quiet in terms of macro statistics in States. On Thursday the decision of ECB about the interest rate will be published – it is most likely it will stay at the same level, but investors will traditionally be more interested in comments of monetary politicians.

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