AUD: hope for upcoming interest growth was dissipated by data about inflation

Sunday, August 8, 2010

For the first time in last 5 days AUD goes down on Forex market. Domestic news has become the catalyst to sell AUD/USD.
CPI in Australia at the end of second quarter has grown by +0,6% per quarter and by +3,1% per annum against the previous values of +0,9% and +2,9 accordingly. Economists’ prognosis was +1,0% per quarter and +3,4% per annum. At the same time weighted average inflation, which is a less volatile indicator, has shown growth by 0,5% per quarter (+2,7% per annum) after the prognosis of +3,0% growth.
Investors were upset with statistics. It is considered on the market that only inflation higher than 0,9% per quarter can make Reserve Bank of
Australia rise interest rate again. The next meeting will be conducted next Tuesday, 3rd of August.
So far there’s no hope for growth of the rate in Australia in the near future: there are almost no fundamental reasons for its increase. Moreover, RBA didn’t announce its resume about the influence of previous rate’s rising to the economy of the country.
In general the situation in Asian-Pacific region makes rates grow faster than anywhere in the world: India, Korea and Thailand have already announced about the increasing of the rate; Malaysia has updated the rate three times this year already.
After going down on the first part of the day on Wednesday, AUD/USD continued trading around 0,8946. Trading turnover is not big, as market players’ attention is drawn to New Zealand market, where the decision about the national interest rate should be made in the evening.

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